For years, I have read articles telling people how to bluff. The concept was always the same: “bluffing and pretending will always give you an edge”, they say, and so many players have grown with the idea that being a good player means mastering this art and to execute at any possible chance. They even go as far as wasting their efforts on learning how to bluff even before learning how to play…
Moreover, many people believe every time they miss a bluff, they have missed a chance to trick their opponent. But is bluffing REALLY always a good thing to do?
Today I want to show you why bluffing might not be a good idea at all sometimes, and how to understand the correct times and timings on how do it. Sure, there are many games that you might win thanks to a bluff or a small performance on your part… But contrary to people belief, there’s in fact a lot you might lose by doing it!
Why is bluffing not always a good idea?
Let me show you some real game situations in order to explain what I’m trying to say. In the instances below, bluffing wasn’t exactly the best play to do!
1) The Hellrider/Restoration Angel case
Let’s imagine we are playing a Grand Prix. It is about round six, and both we and our opponent stand with a positive 6-0 record. We shuffle and start playing, without knowing too much about each other.
This is Standard, and we are playing RG and our opponent is playing UWR Flash. We have a Hellrider on board and our opponent has UUWW untapped. The fear of Restoration Angel is obviously present, even though we don’t really have a lot of alternatives looking at our hand… and while we are pondering on if we should attack or not, we notice the UWR Flash player starts playing with his graveyard pile. He then finishes reordering the pile ending up with a Think Twice on top, and pretending to be quite unfocused about everything else. Then he looks at us…
It’s already the Declare Attackers Step.
DO YOU ATTACK OR NOT?
Try to think it by yourself before continuing….
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Answer: DO NOT ATTACK!
Wait a second and try to think about what happened here. Wasn’t that quite a WEIRD moment for your opponent to stack his graveyard just before you were deciding whether to attack or not? Did he really want to play that Think Twice that turn… Or did he rather want you to really believe that he wanted to play it?
In fact, in this situation, there would be no reason to show so effusively your true intentions to play that irrelevant-end of turn Flashback card at that precise time… unless you truly wanted to trick your opponent into the exact opposite reasoning. Applying the logic: The player must have Restoration Angel, since he wanted us to believe he doesn’t… He was bluffing his Think Twice play, but it didn’t really make any sense after all in the way he did, because… Wouldn’t he rather try to bluff a Restoration Angel instead if he really didn’t have it?
Want to know what really happened in that game? The UWR Flash player did indeed have the Restoration Angel, and the RG player guessed right by just passing the turn without immolating his Hellrider. Some turns later, it “rode” him to victory thanks to some good draws and many more creatures causing lethal.
Don’t you see it? Our opponent just lost the game because he tried to bluff way too much and in a moment it wasn’t justified at all. The funniest thing is: Would have the RG player attacked if the UWR had done nothing at all? Pretty surely he would have, since he couldn’t afford to sit there anyway considering his hand.
What was the problem with the UWR player’s bluff? It was an untimed performance, and most importantly, it wasn’t credible at all. The second error here was that he tried to pretend something in a way he never did in the past: Was he reordering his Flashbacks in earlier turns? No, he wasn’t. Was he so effusively announcing what he was going to play in the middle of a turn in other plays? No, he never did that. By acting in such a different and hardly credible way that crucial turn, he gave vital information to his opponent instead of tricking him into an error.
Lesson #1: Bad bluffs can cause you to lose games.
2) The Gorehorn Minotaur/Lava Axe situation
Let’s go with another real example:
You are playing the good old National Championships, you are 6-2 already, and you find yourself playing your last round of M12 Draft in your last table, for the 3-0 record and the 7-2 into Day2 lock. If you win, you are in, if you lose you are out.
It’s game 3 and your opponent is playing a BR super agro deck with solid Bloodthirst beaters together with burn spells and some Lava Axes. You are playing a UB plain control deck with some stallers and fliers.
In the turn that matters, he untaps with his 5/5 Gorehorn Minotaur, which has attacked you for several turns already, and has managed to drop you to 9 life all by itself. Even though it’s the late game, it’s pretty clear he has pretty much nothing else: he has been drawing card after card, and never played a single creature or removal since then, so you must assume he has only drawn lands or useless tricks.
Now you have a 2/4 Amphin Cutthroat tapped and a Sengir Vampire which you played on your last turn. Your desperate plan is only one: Take your last hit from the Gorehorn Minotaur, drop your life to 4, and then start attacking with Sengir Vampire and chumpblocking with the Amphin Cutthroat and whichever creatures you might topdeck after until you race his 16 points of life. Sounds pretty rough, right? But it’s basically your only path to victory…
As I was saying, the BR player has already untapped and then proceeds to draw his card for the turn. As he looks at the card, he violently blames his luck because he drew “yet another land”, and that’s exactly what he yells. After some complaining and hand shuffling, he moves the Minotaur to the red zone…
WHAT DO YOU DO?
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Answer: CHUMP-BLOCK WITH THE SENGIR VAMPIRE!
This might sound a bit crazy, I know. This is a situation that happened to me in the Spanish Nationals two years ago. I won’t say it was instinctive at all to snap-block with my Sengir Vampire, and I had to truly tank for a while, but in the end I just didn’t buy it.
Try to analyze the situation: I was backpedaling with almost no hope to win the game unless I topdecked something very good or several creatures after that. He probably had been drawing a bunch of useless lands, and he could have just complained for any of them, but he didn’t. Why? In fact… Why would he? His Minotaur was already winning him the game, and there was no need to complain regardless of his blank draws. But then… in the crucial turn, he suddenly draws his card and complains about “Oh my god! Yet another land!”.
Of course we get to the same point again: Why would he complain about drawing a land if it wasn’t because he wanted us to trick us into ignoring his real topdeck? Was he blaming so exaggeratedly every time he drew an extra land during previous turns? He wasn’t… In the end, the slim possibility of him having Lava Axe turned into an “of course he must have drawn it” highlighted in my mind, and I finally proceeded to chumpblock.
Want to know what really happened in that game? After that chumpblock with the Sengir Vampire, I drew my 5/6 Sphinx of Uthuun, and went onto controlling the game, making sure I was never reaching the under 5 life threshold. Some attacks later, and overwhelmed with the card advantage I gained from the Sphinx, he just scooped up his cards with a lone and useless Lava Axe sitting in his hand.
Again, can you see what happened here? The Lava Axe player just threw away his win because he wanted to bluff too much here. He gave me crucial information in a turn in which he would have won by just attacking and doing nothing else.
Would I have blocked with the Sengir Vampire (my only hope of winning the game) before his more than suspicious performance? Obviously I wouldn’t have. It wouldn’t even have crossed my mind. Could he have the Lava Axe anyway? Yes… and what can I do about it? That’s not something you do unless you are more than slightly sure he might have the Laxa Axe… And he precisely gave me that last missing piece of information, which helped me to confirm he did in fact have it.
Lesson #2: Unneeded bluffs can also cause you to lose games
1)The Fiend Hunter/ Searing Spear case
To close up my article, let me explain you the last case of a failed bluff that caused someone to lose the game.
This happened to me in the last Grand Prix Verona (Standard) while playing against Naya. I was playing Human Reanimator and it was a post-board game in which I had boarded plenty of creatures and changed my combo plan quite a bit.
Given the time, I had a flipped Ravager of the Fells and a Fiend Hunter hunting his Thundermaw Hellkite. He didn’t have any more creatures, and my only plan was trying to finish him by attacking, since there was a pair of Rest in Peace on board.
My life was 10, and his was 5, so the race was pretty close if you think about it. Once again, the Beginning of Combat approached and it was time to think what to do… The risk of my opponent having Searing Spear was quite too big for me to risk my attack into that Thundermaw Hellkite and I was looking at my Thragtusk in hand and considered waiting, which looked like a much safer plan…
However, while I was quite doubtful about attacking at all, I decided to Declare Attackers to my opponent anyway. Then, before I could even start tapping my Ravager or my Fiend Hunter… My opponent said something like: “Wait a second, wait…”. He tapped two lands and untapped them again. Then he repeated the process looking very dubious about it. Regardless, in the end he was letting me attack…
WHAT DO YOU DO?
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Answer: ATTACK UNAFRAID!
This is yet another example of a horribly executed bluff. Not to say pretty much a useless one. My opponent is obviously simulating Searing Spear with all the tapping and untapping, but it just doesn’t make any sense once again… If he really had it, wouldn’t it be way more advantageous for him to just let me attack into the Hellkite? Wouldn’t it be better for him to just pretend he doesn’t have it if he really had the Searing Spear? Why would he warn me about it unless it was because he truly had nothing?
Want to know what really happened in that game? I attacked with my Ravager of the Fells and my Fiend Hunter totally unafraid thanks to his tell. While thinking if attacking or not, I was very afraid of him having the card at first, and probably the best play would have been just to wait, but after his bad bluff I was 100% he didn’t have it. Trying to trick me basically give me the game even earlier than expected.
Had he topdecked Angel of Serenity, I would have surely lost the game. He didn’t even give himself that option, since he opened me the doors to a quick alpha strike thanks to his free information. But isn’t it funny to think that he was indeed trying to confuse me instead?
Of course this one might be much more easier to spot than the other two cases, but that doesn’t mean this kind of situation happens in almost every tournament, and I yet see many players falling into this poorly thinking, that bluffing is always the best you can do.
Lesson #3: You don’t have it? Sometimes it’s better to do nothing
I hope this article has opened your mind, and now you will be way more cautious at the time to bluff, both when deciding if it is really correct do to it, or at the time to dismantle your opponent’s bad performances or tells.
Next time, ask yourself these questions when to know if a bluff is credible enough:
1- Am I usually behaving like that? If not, can my opponent easily spot I’m acting awkwardly?
2 – Does it make any sense for me to bluff this now? Wouldn’t it be better to just do nothing If I really had the card I’m trying to bluff?
DON’T DO IT UNLESS YOU ARE SURE
Until next time,
Do not bluff unless it really does make sense to bluff!